Production at the world's oil fields will decline faster in coming years, putting more pressure on future oil supplies, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.
As current fields fade with age and the industry moves offshore and into smaller fields, decline rates will accelerate, the agency found, and more investment will be required to make up the shortfall.
This is a very bad indicator that if the USA is on the road to recovery, the biggest obstacle is still oil consumption. Reinvestment in alternative energies will not be viable within 8 years, therefore drop in production will spur oil prices when supply cannot cope with demand in 3 years. This will hinder Obama's recovery plan.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Bad sign for Oil related companies..
The oil today drop below USD 60. Even as OPEC has push supply down recently.. Watch out for SPC, ChinaAOil. Profit margin will be strongest hit ..
$20 a barrel? Oil prices to continue slide for 6 months, analyst projects
A prominent, Calgary-based economist projects oil prices will continue to slide for at least the next six months and may drop as low as $20 a barrel.
Philip Verleger, a professor at the University of Calgary's Haskayne School of Business, said oil consumption is falling notably owing to the wobbly economy and a downturn in the auto industry.
"I think probably in the first quarter the average price will be below $50, it is possible if this recession is as bad as it is beginning to look it could be a lot lower than that," he said. "We could see something briefly in the twenties."
"On a year-over-year basis, GDP being down three or four per cent in the fourth quarter will lead to much lower oil consumption both in the United States and the rest of the world."
On Wednesday, light sweet crude for December delivery fell to $58.34 US a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Since July, oil prices have dropped by about 60 per cent from a high of $147.27 in July.
Verleger said a U.S. decision to hold back oil reserves raised the oil prices significantly.
"I calculate that consumers across the world paid a tax or transfer to oil producers of $1 trillion," he said. "I calculate the tax on the assumption that the price should have stayed around $70."
He said he expects oil prices over the next six months to largely hover around $50 a barrel.
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2008/11/12/oil-verleger.html
Philip Verleger, a professor at the University of Calgary's Haskayne School of Business, said oil consumption is falling notably owing to the wobbly economy and a downturn in the auto industry.
"I think probably in the first quarter the average price will be below $50, it is possible if this recession is as bad as it is beginning to look it could be a lot lower than that," he said. "We could see something briefly in the twenties."
"On a year-over-year basis, GDP being down three or four per cent in the fourth quarter will lead to much lower oil consumption both in the United States and the rest of the world."
On Wednesday, light sweet crude for December delivery fell to $58.34 US a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Since July, oil prices have dropped by about 60 per cent from a high of $147.27 in July.
Verleger said a U.S. decision to hold back oil reserves raised the oil prices significantly.
"I calculate that consumers across the world paid a tax or transfer to oil producers of $1 trillion," he said. "I calculate the tax on the assumption that the price should have stayed around $70."
He said he expects oil prices over the next six months to largely hover around $50 a barrel.
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2008/11/12/oil-verleger.html
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
S'pore's growth to fall 2%
"MORGAN Stanley has slashed its forecast for Singapore's growth next year on the back of a worse-than-expected global slowdown.
It now expects the economy to shrink by 2 per cent next year, after tipping a 0.2 per cent expansion previously." quoted from straitstimes
This is an early warning for the PAP government that Singapore is heading for a rough ride. I won't be surprise if they call for SNAP ELECTION as the recession will definitely drag their votes further if they wait till 2011 to hold the GE. I have strong faith that the next budget will be strong enough to temporary keep the economy running. My personal estimates is shrink less than 2% if Snap Election gives the ruling party the mandate to rule again.
It now expects the economy to shrink by 2 per cent next year, after tipping a 0.2 per cent expansion previously." quoted from straitstimes
This is an early warning for the PAP government that Singapore is heading for a rough ride. I won't be surprise if they call for SNAP ELECTION as the recession will definitely drag their votes further if they wait till 2011 to hold the GE. I have strong faith that the next budget will be strong enough to temporary keep the economy running. My personal estimates is shrink less than 2% if Snap Election gives the ruling party the mandate to rule again.
Chen Shui-bian finally detained..
He said that his arrest was politically motivated because he is the obstacle for the coalition of KMT and the DPP. Evidences were so strong against him and though he won some sympathies from the pro-independent Taiwanese. If DPP are willing to cut ties with him, we can embrace ourself with less turbulence across cross straits ties with China..
2nd Day Forex Trading
Roller Coaster ride.. bet against the market that USD will strengthen with China's Stimulus growth but suffered 3k losses.. but manage to profit in the end by shorting since Bush is unlikely to help OBAMA save the Auto Mobile industry. Therefore General Motors and Chrysler will be on their own till Jan 20 2009 when OBAMA takes office..
Monday, November 10, 2008
Money Opportunity! Capital Land
Las Vegas Sands plans to raise $2.14 billion to mantain liquidity. Hmm somehow I am very uncomfortable with this proposal. Sands has problem trying to fullfill the loans' covenant. This is a big problem, failing to solve this will result to the final road to bankruptcy. But although i am not very happy if Las Vegas Sands fails the fund raising, it nevertheless brings opportunity for us. Capital Land and Government's Temasake Holdings have the capability to continue the Integrate Resort which will thus likely increase its value. This is a safe bet.. If Sands manage to scrape through, placing money in a blue chip company is worth it. If it doesn't you can see ur money grow quite substaintially by 2011 :P
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